Project management Assignment Help online: Risk Identification for “The Great Escape”

RISK ANALYSIS

Risk Identification for “The Great Escape”

 Through the review of the previous objects and the metrics eth starting point for risk identification is found. In the camp it was mainly based on keeping the track of metrics related to the attempts made for escaping and doing a serious post-mortem after each escape attempt without considering whether it has failed or was successful. Some of the areas of risk identified in “The Great Escape” Movies are:

•  Escape plot discovery through the presence of tunnels. This major risk lied in the detection of the whole escape project if the traces of  tunnel were badly hidden or  the tunnel traces were exposed and  nosy ferrets  uncovering something.
•  Dangers of Tunnel Engineering:  the potential risk was of risk of lives for the men who were digging tunnel because the tunnel might collapse or the construction was very risky job. Due to very small dimension of tunnel the accumulation of bad air was possible.
• The third area of risk was the escape itself because getting through and out of the tunnel which was very sleek in dimension was risky as it posed the risk of collapsing anytime. Another risk of escape was the life the men would have to handle after getting outside and being on the run because survival was a major challenge till eth reached safe destination.

Risk Management Plan

The Risk analysis can be both qualitative as well as quantitative the qualitative risk analysis is developed by combining the probability of occurrence and impact while the quantitative risk analysis analyses the risk numerically and its effects on all the project objectives of the risks identified.

First Risk Management

The first risk was escape plot being discovered and in this case the biggest risk was that the tunnel getting discovered. The most likely part of the deep tunnel to be discovered was its trap door. The probability of discovering the tunnel trap door was “very high” because the nosy ferrets were looking for it all the time. The impact of detecting it was catastrophic. SO the risk could be managed by concealing the single entrance door to the tunnel to avoid closest of scrutiny.

Nosy Ferrets were also very high risk because of unrestricted access; they can uncover anything and wander anywhere. Thus the probability of tunnel discovery is very high. The impact of this risk was that all the escape-related work should be highly guarded and eth Prisoners of Wars should be alerted immediately about the arrival of nosy ferrets.

Hiding the traces of tunnel mainly the sand was “low risk”. The probability of sand’s discovery was “high” because it is hard to conceal sand as its colour was different from the outside sand. The impact of discovering dug sand was the ferrets getting alerted that an escape tunnel is being built. The probability of discovering the sand was “high” because massive digging was needed for the long tunnel and concealing huge amount of sand was difficult.

Second Risk Management

 The second risk was danger associated with tunnel engineering because eth probability of tunnel collapsing was “very high” and cave-ins were common feature. The impact of tunnel collapse was “higher” for the men working inside tunnel.

The probability of bad air accumulating was “very high” because it increased with the tunnel growing in length. The impact of  bad air will lead to saturation of carbon dioxide which could lead to congestion or asphyxiation and can also lead to death. This risk can be managed by applying the best possible techniques like air supplier machine being prepared by Hendrick and allowing entry of few people in tunnel at a time.

Thus the risk was well managed through:

First risk escape plot discovery:

• Concealing the trap door to tunnel through blending them with the surroundings of room this way risk was mitigated.
• System of tracking and warning system was developed for avoiding the ferrets. The dangerous ferrets list was maintained by Bushell.
• To mitigate the risk of discovery of tunnel three tunnels were constructed together so that if one was discovered they can fall back on another tunnel.
•  Concealing the traces of tunnel by dispersing sand outside through concealed pockets and various cover-up activities was planned like choir singing to conceal the tunnel digging sound.

Second risk Dangers with tunnel engineering:

• The expertise of miners and mining engineers like Wally Floody etc. helped in mitigating this risk.
•  The risk of tunnel collapse was mitigated through ensuring that the tunnels were levelled.
•  The ventilation system was installed to bring air to the tunnel’s face and help in mitigating the risk of suffocation.

Third Risk The escape itself:

• Disguise clothing, identification passes etc.  For everyone was stitched so that they can move around freely after escape and mitigate the risk of getting away from the camp unnoticed.
•  The risk of escaping through the tunnel without getting noticed was done by passing the escapers through careful controlling.

A Quality Management Plan

The quality was managed for the Escape Plan through taking care of each and every detail of the activity like:

• Concealing the tunnel entrance: It was done with great nitty gritty and engineering. Two similar tiles were being sourced matching the floor which can be removed and fitted back. The trap door was perfectly blended with the surroundings of the room.
•  Tunnel construction was done secretly and safely: To conceal the digging sounds the chorus was made to sing whenever the digging activity was done. The sand was taken outside and mixed with the sand through concealed pockets with strings and then mixed through foot stomping of parading men or the men who were gardening so that it cannot be noticed. The escape activity was not totally concealed because then it would have created suspicion in the minds of ferrets and higher officials.
•  Forged Documents were scrutinised: Once Henderly took the real documents from one of the ferrets he created two documents and asked the caption which one is forged even he could not detect.
• Clothing – meld wearer, the clothing was dyed with blue ink so that it can get the same colour. The blanket cloth was scrapped to make it smooth so that it gets the same look and feel as the ferret’s dresses. The cuts and eth design of clothing was also totally imitated as the German soldiers or common man to make them perfect disguise.

A Resourcing Plan

The resource plan was close to perfect as designed by the escape team the escape committee created the project teams in order to overcome the various problems on the basis of various available skill sets. Which has been depicted in the chart below the resource plan?

There were several other  professions,  trades and skill sets  which were existing in the camp like  miners, forgers,  carpenters, engineers, geologists,  electricians,  Tinsmiths,  surviellienace experts, choir experts,  supplies,  internal security,  dispersals , dispersal diversions and  compass factory etc.

• Willie and Danny was the Tunnel King.
• Danny was in-charge of t6raps
• Sedgwick was eth manufacturer
• Griff was a master tailor.
• Nimmo and Haynes were responsible for diversions
• Mac was responsible for intelligence, blankets, ration, and timetable for trains and compass for all the walkers.
• Dennis was responsible for maps and surveys
• Eric was allocated the task of getting rid of dirt.

While allocating the resources there was no problem because enough resources were available for the whole escape project 250 men in total were available and they had varied kinds of skills.

A Communication Plan.

The whole escape committee developed a fool proof communication plan which was communicated to the POWs to get the buy-in and active participation of each and every POW. Although there was no written communication plan between the POW’s but the communication was very strong and effective. The purpose of communication was to convey the messages in most secret manner. Some of the methods which were used for communication were pulling the strings, knocking at the door, creating sounds by knocking on the rail tracks, secret agents transmitting the clandestine communication, reviewing the progress of tunnel regularly, holding group or team meetings regarding the progress and finale escape plan.

Success of Project and Recommendations

In the end the project was not successful because 50 army men lost their lives and the mission of the project to plan an escape was not accomplished successfully. The original plan was to plan a successful escape from the prison for the 250 people without getting noticed by eth German army, but the outcome was totally opposite as some of them lost their lives and some of them were caught and were returned back to the prison as POW’s.

 Some of the changes which I would recommend if asked to reap the same project of “The Great Escape” was assessing the distance of the nearby woods and digging the tunnel till the woods itself. Second recommendation would be to make the whole process very speedy so that 250 men could run away as soon as possible overnight without getting caught. Training the soldiers in between is another recommendation so that they do not feel scared while travelling through tunnel. The list or sequence for going should also be prepared while doing this project. Few other suggestions are:

• Befriending German guards and speakers
•  Blackmail for railway timetables, cameras etc.
• “ Duty Pilot” System to be used
• “ Stool Pigeon”  to witness
• Manufacturing the blades, hacksaws knives etc.

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