QUESTION
Current Cigarette Smoking Prevalence
In 2005, 17.4% (±1.8) of New Jersey adults identified themselves as current smokers. According to the 2005
New Jersey Adult Tobacco Survey (NJATS), the percentage of adults who were current smokers significantly
declined from 19.8% (±1.5) in 2000. This decline represents a trend of decreasing adult smoking prevalence
since at least 2000. The exception to this trend was an increase in smoking prevalence in 2001, possibly due
in part to the events surrounding September 11
Percent
th
(CDC, 2002; Vlahov et al., 2002 ) (See Figure 1).
Continuing past trends, males (19.8 ±3.1%) were more likely than females (15.4 ±2.1%) to be current
cigarette smokers. In 2005, there were no statistically significant differences in current cigarette smoking
among whites (18.3 ±2.1%), blacks (22.5 ±7.3%) and Hispanics (13.6 ±4.4%). There were also no
statistically significant differences in cigarette smoking prevalence by gender or by race over time. However,
as seen in Figure 2 and corroborated by data from the New Jersey Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance
System (NJ BRFSS), there appears to be a decreasing trend in cigarette smoking among whites and an
increasing trend among blacks. Although these trends were not statistically significant, careful monitoring of
smoking prevalence by race/ethnicity is warranted in order to document persistent racial/ethnic differences
over time and understand disparities in cigarette use.
Tobacco Surveillance Data Brief:
Adult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence
Figure 1: Percentage of current cigarette smokers
among adults in New Jersey – NJATS, 2000-2005
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
22.1
19.8
18.0
17.4
2000 2001 2002 2005
Figure 2: Percentage of current cigarette smokers among
adults in New Jersey, by race/ethnicity – NJATS, 2000-2005
Percent
1
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
19.6
23.6
20.3
22.5
20.7
17.3
17.2
20.0
18.3
18.4
16.5
2000 2001 2002 2005
13.6
Whites
Blacks
Hispanics
Tobacco Surveillance Data Brief: Adult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence Volume 1, Issue 2
Figure 3 indicates the current cigarette smoking prevalence by age group from 2000 to 2005. Cigarette
smoking prevalence did not vary significantly, but did show a downward trend, over time for most groups.
Only 25- to 44-year-olds showed a significant decline in smoking prevalence (25.5 ±2.7% in 2000 to 20.5
±3.7% in 2005). Data from NJ BRFSS reveal similar trends.
Changing Patterns of Adult Cigarette Smoking
Many people assume that smokers smoke daily, but in fact many smokers practice someday smoking. In
2005, 13.5% (±1.6) of adults reported smoking daily and 3.9% (±0.9) reported someday smoking. There
was a significant decline in daily smoking between 2000 and 2005, but no significant difference for
someday smoking. There were no gender differences for daily and someday smoking.
Figure 3: Percentage of current cigarette smokers among adults
in New Jersey, by age group – NJATS, 2000-2005
Percent
Percent
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
27.5
27.2
24.2
22.7
25.5
15.9
7.7
22.3
13.5
2
20.3
17.8
19.4
9.1
8.4
2000 2001 2002 2005
Figure 4: Percentage of everyday smokers and someday
smokers among adults in New Jersey – NJATS, 2000-2005
17.0
15.8
5.1
4.0
4.1
13.9
13.5
2000 2001 2002 2005
3.9
22.7
20.5
Everyday smoker
Someday smoker
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
Tobacco Surveillance Data Brief: Adult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence Volume 1, Issue 2
Daily smoking differed by race/ethnicity. The
prevalence of daily smoking among adults was
significantly higher among whites (15.0 ±2.0%)
compared to Hispanics (8.4 ±3.2%). The
prevalence of daily smoking among black
current smokers was 15.4% (±6.0). As shown
in Figure 5, smokers aged 18-24 had the
highest prevalence of daily smoking (18.0
±4.6%), while smokers 65 and over had the
lowest prevalence of daily smoking (6.2
±2.2%); the difference between daily smoking
for these age groups was statistically
significant.
Cigarette consumption
The average number of cigarettes smoked per day is decreasing. In 2000, 51.1% (±4.1) of daily smokers
reported smoking 15 or fewer cigarettes per day and by 2005, 53.7% (±6.1) reported smoking 15 or
fewer cigarettes per day (see Figure 6). The change in the percentage of daily smokers smoking 15 or
fewer cigarettes a day was not statistically significant but these are encouraging trends that bear further
monitoring.
Figure 5: Everyday smoking vs. someday smoking,
by age group – NJATS, 2005
% of adults
Percent
25
20
15
10
5
0
Figure 6: Percentage of daily smokers that smoke 15 or fewer
cigarettes daily – NJATS, 2000-2005
100
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
51.1
46.3
3
4.7
5.1
18.0
15.4
3.1
14.7
18-24 25-44 45-64 65+
49.7
53.7
2000 2001 2002 2005
Someday smoker
Everyday smoker
2.2
6.2
Tobacco Surveillance Data Brief: Adult Cigarette Smoking Prevalence Volume 1, Issue 2
Figure 7 illustrates per capita cigarette
consumption for New Jersey and the United
States between 1999 and 2004. Per capita
consumption in the United States and New
Jersey declined during this time period.
However, New Jersey’s per capita
consumption was almost 20 packs lower
than the rate for the United States in 1999.
The gap between the United States and
New Jersey increased to almost 30 packs
per capita in 2004, suggesting that New
Jersey’s per capita cigarette consumption
is declining at a faster rate than the United
States in general.
References
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Psychological and emotional effects of the September 11 attacks on the World
Trade Center-Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, 2001. MMWR, 2002; 51: 784-786.
Tobacco Institute. The tax burden on tobacco: historical compilation. Volume 39. Washington DC: The Tobacco Institute,
2004.
Vlahov D, Galea S, Resnick H, Ahern J, Boscarino JA, Bucuvalas M, Gold J, Kilpatrick D. Increased use of cigarettes,
alcohol, and marijuana among Manhattan, New York, residents after the September 11th terrorist attacks. American
Journal of Epidemiology 2002; 155:988-996.
Packs per capita
More information:
Figure 7: United States and New Jersey packs per capita
cigarette consumption -Tobacco Institute, 1999-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
81.1
77.6
4
63.6
60.1
75.6
73.5
71.6
68.6
57.7
58.4
48.1
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
The data in this brief are from the New Jersey Adult Tobacco Survey (NJATS). The New Jersey Adult Tobacco Survey (NJATS)
is a point-in-time telephone survey used to monitor tobacco use behavior, knowledge, and attitudes among New Jersey adults.
The survey uses a random digit dialing (RDD) sampling approach and provides information that allows the CTCP to monitor
progress over time and evaluate whether goals and objectives are being met, particularly those aimed at reducing the use of
tobacco among New Jersey adults. The NJATS was administered in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2005. The most recent NJATS was
administered to 3197 adults between February and April 2005. The data are weighted to adjust for non-response and the
varying probabilities of selection, including those resulting from the over sampling, providing results representative of the New
Jersey adult population.
Current smoking is defined as having smoked 100 cigarettes in a lifetime and now smoking cigarettes every day or some days.
Daily smoking is defined as having smoked 100 cigarettes in a lifetime and now smoking cigarettes every day.
Someday smoking is defined as having smoked 100 cigarettes in a lifetime and now smoking cigarettes some days.
For more information on the NJATS or the data reported in this brief, contact the New Jersey Department of Health and Senior
Services at 609-292-9194, or visit their website at http://www.state.nj.us/health/as/ctcp/index.html
Suggested Citation: UMDNJ-School of Public Health (2006). Tobacco Surveillance Data Brief: Current Cigarette Smoking
SOLUTION
Answer1.
Any survey is related to some objectives and on the basis of these objectives, every procedure and methods used. The survey is considered to be best when data collected is quantitative and quantities. Quantitative data are related to numerical things which are as follows:
- The number of adult young persons in the New Jersey area who are using tobacco as in their regular habit and the young persons who are not using regularly. The age of adult persons are also taken into account and take the data in the systematic way .The unit of taking data is very important because quantitative data depends on the various unit. Actually data is taken in such a way that the analysis and interpretation can be done in an effective way. Another thing is the source of data which is also important that is, from where to the data like from collegestudents, from working students etc.
(Stockburger)
- The key issues are behaviour, knowledge and attitudes of the person. Actually these are the qualitative data and it is measured in the composite unit. Not to use the tobacco is also a qualitative item. Degree of the accuracy of the data is also an important factor. An idea about investigator in his results is also essential before starting collection of any data and size of the sample. In any statistical enquiry perfect accuracy in the final results is perfectly impossible to achieve because of error in the measurement, collection of data, its analysis and interpretation of the result. Here, in present case to take the data of the whole is very difficult to take.
- The way of inquiry is also very important. The enquiry depends on many things.
a) Initial or repetitive data of tobacco
b) Direct or indirect of tobacco data collection
c) Primary or secondary data of the tobacco smoker.
4 If we consider all the quantitative and qualitative data we can see following items
a) Male and female- the data of male and female smoker is taken and the habit and behaviour of male and female are different and the effect of smoke is also different for the male and female.
b) Age of the people – If data is collected on basis of age group, we can easily assessed the average age of the person started taking the smoke in hislife. Here the age group is divided into four catogeries.First category is eighteen to twenty four years, second twenty five year to forty year .Third forty five years to sixty four and last one is more than sixty five years.
c) Changing patterns of adult cigarette smoking- While collecting the data,pattern of the cigarette smoking is taken in to account. And the pattern has been changing always because there are some persons who try to quit the smoke and some have completely changed the habit.
d) Every smoker or someday smoker- there are some persons who are taking the smoke every day and some persons who are taking the smoke after some regular interval. Some take the smoke on some occasion like party, marriage etc.
e) Number of cigarette in a day or week- There are many persons who take ten to twenty cigarette in day .they are the addict of the smoke. So the number of cigarette consumed by the people is an important data.
f) Per capita cigarette consumption- In world wide the smoke business is growing rapidly. The people know that it is not good for the health but still people are consuming it and doing expenditure on it. So it necessary that per capita income of the people is calculated. Per capita cigarette is calculated by dividing the total expenditure on smoke by population of the country. In 2000, 51.1% of daily smokers reported smoking 15 or less per day.
(Delnevo CD, Gundersen D, Hrywna M. Examining, 2009)
Answer 2
There are various ways of collecting data concept which are as follows:
- Information through local agencies- In this the information is not collected formally by the investigator. This method consists of appointment of local agents by the investigator in the different field the enquiry. They collect information according to the certain rule and submit the reportperiodically to the head or branch office where data is analyses finally.
- Mailed question method- In this method a list of questions are preparing related to the smoking field and providing space for the answer to be filled by the smokers. This is mailed to the people for the quick renounce within the specified time. People are kindly requested to provide the full co-operation by giving the correct replies and retiring the sent mail dully filled in time.
In this method, the questionnaire is the only medium of communication between the investigators and smokers. The success of this method depends on skill, efficiency, care and wisdom with which the questionnaire is framed. The question to be asked is very simple .brief, corroborative and unambiguous. This method is able to cover a wide area in a minimum cost and minimum time.
Errors due to the personal biases of the investigator areignored as the information is supplied directly by the person concerned in this own handwriting. But there are chances that people might suppress conrrect information. Some smokers are not willing to provide the information because they do not want to provide the smoking habit information, income and expenditure on the tobacco and cigarette.
The best things are to frame the question. And followings are the items to be included while making questionnaire.
a) The size of the questionnaire.
b) The questions are arranged in a logical sequence.
c) Questions are so designed that are easy to understand.
d) Type of the question like number of cigarette in a day, expenditure on the smoke item.
e) Open questions- Open question are asked and get the information immediately.
Answer 2
Interpretation and presentation process
There are various ways of presentation of the data
1 Frequency distribution- The data can be summarised in frequency table. Sometimes it can be continuous frequency distribution and sometimes it can be non-continuous. Example; age group like 18-24,25-44, 45-64 and more than 65 year. (NJ Department of Health and Senior Services, Comprehensive Tobacco Control Program (CTCP), February 2006)
2 Number of frequency of same group is taken.
3 qualitative data is presented by median or deciles and percentile. It covers behaviour, attitude and habit taking the smoke.
4 There are various ways to represent the data collected. Each and every diagram has its own significance. These are as follow;
a) One dimensional diagram- data collected is represented in line and bar diagrams. In this method, line and bar are represented in the vertical form. All the bars are drawn on the same base line. Sometimes the bars are arranged from left to right in order of magnitude to give pleasing effects. There are different types of the bar diagram. For example- simple bar diagram, component bar diagram, percentage bar diagram, multiple bar diagram and bilateral bar diagram. When data are represented on the basis of year the one of best ways is bar diagram. But when data are related to male and female, the best way is to represent it by multiple bar diagram. But when income, expenditure on the smoke and saving are repressed, the better way is to represent it by sub- divided bar diagram. Deviation bar diagram is used to repress positive and negative data. When data of different regions (about the smokers) are considered, broken diagram is used.
b) Two-dimensional diagrams- The magnitude of the observations are represented by the area of the diagram. So in two dimensional diagrams length and breadth are considered. There are various type of the two dimensional diagrams, which are rectangles, squares, circles and angular and pie diagrams. Mainly pie diagram and rectangle diagrams are used to express the component value.
c) Three dimensional diagrams – when length, breadth and height are taken in the diagram, it is called three dimensional diagrams. For example- cubes, pictogram, cartogram and etc.
Statistical tools used in the analysis smoking data. There are various tools which are as follow;
a) Central tendency measured- Mean, median, mode and different types of standards are used to analyse the smoking data. When highest number of smoking group is decided,mode of collected data is used. For qualitative data like attitude, behaviour, median is used. Standards deviation is calculated to see the extent of deviation from means of the data. Variance is also calculated to find out the date.
Here the calculated mean,median, mode and standards deviation are nothing but samplemean, median, mode and standard deviation. Standard error is also calculated. Then sampling and non-sampling errors are calculated. In 2005, in New Jersey current smokers are 17.4% (+/_ 1.8%). This 17.4% is mean and (+/_) 1.8% is nothing but standards deviation. (NJ Department of Health and Senior Services, Comprehensive Tobacco Control Program (CTCP), February 2006)
Co-variance is also calculated between two items like habit of use of cigarette by male and female. The more accurate association is also calculated by correlation co-efficient. The co-efficient of the qualitative items are calculated by using rank method. In this method, first, rank is calculated and then using the formula, co-efficient is calculated.
In 2005, 17.4% (±1.8) of New Jersey adults identified themselves as current smokers.
(NJ Department of Health and Senior Services, Comprehensive Tobacco Control Program (CTCP), February 2006)
Answer 3
Various statistical theories are used to draw the conclusion. First theory of estimation and testing of hypothesis are used. Estimation theory is considered over mean, variance, proportion, co-relation co-efficient etc. Two type of estimations are used, first point of estimation and interval estimation. Pointestimation is used to estimate a given parameter. If any estimator is a good estimator then it must satisfies unbiaseness, consistency, efficiency and sufficiency. Sufficientestimators contain all the information in the sample regarding parameters. There are various ways of point estimation. These are method of maximum likelyhood, method of least squares, method of moments, method of minimum variance, method of minimum chi-square and method of inverse probability theory. The most commonly used method is method of maximum likelihood. It is related to maximizing the likelihood of probability of randomly selected set of sample values. Central limit theorem is also used to create the limit of the data. For this purpose a range is found out.
Qualitative things like attitude and behaviour are considered under proportion.For operating qualitative data are classified into two groups dichotomous and manifold. Testing of hypothesis is based on the characteristics of the population on the basis of the sample study. Such decision is related to the element of risk.Actually hypothesis is based on some assumption that may or may not be true about the population. Test of the significance is also considered which decides the difference between a statistic and the corresponding population parameter or difference between two independent statistics. Null hypothesis is tested for possible rejection under the assumption that is true. Alternate hypothesis is also used which complementary to the null hypothesis.
Critical values and critical region are also calculated to come at a conclusion. Chi-square test is also calculated for the test of goodness fit and theequality of several population proportions .It is also used to test if the population has a specific value of variance. Normal distribution is graphed to represent the mean and deviation. There are also various forecasting models which are used for the number increasing or decreasing smokers.
Answers 4
The number of current cigarette smoker is increasing every year. Internet purchases has been increased from 1.1% to 6.7% when we compare the data of the 2000 and 2002.The confidence interval is 1.5 to 10.2.The cigarettes via internet was higher among the age group of the 45 years and the 64 years and its confidence interval is 1.2 to 9.2. The price of the cigarette is also increasing but there is no effect on the purchasing. Yong are using it almost regularlybut they are not interested to quit it.
(M Hrywna, 27 April 2004)
References
1 Federal Trade Commission (2005). Federal Trade CommissionCigarette report for 2003. Retrieved February 10, 2006.
2 Hong, T., & Cody, M. J. (2002). Presence of pro-tobacco messages onthe Web. Journal of Health Communication, 7, 273–307.
3 Pierce, J. P., Choi, W. S., Gilpin, E. S., Farkas, A. J., & Berry, C. C.(1998). Tobacco industry promotion of cigarettes and adolescent smoking. The Journal of the American Medical Association, 279,511–515.
4 Suffer, H., & Chaloupka, F. (1999). Tobacco advertising: EconomicTheory and international evidence (Working Paper No. 6958).Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
5. www.ftc.gov/reports/cigarette05/050809cigrpt.pdf
6. http://tobaccocontrol.bmj.com/content/13/3/296.abstract
7. http://sph2.umdnj.edu/tobweb/tobacco_project_njevaluation.htm
8.http://www.state.nj.us/health/as/ctcp/documents/adult_cigarette_smoking_prevalence_brief.pdf
9. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20524888
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