Table of Contents

TASK 1 – SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS                                                                                                                    3

Question 1                                                                                                                                                                               3

Question 2                                                                                                                                                                               3

Question 3                                                                                                                                                                               4

Question 4                                                                                                                                                                               5

TASK -2 MANTO CARLO SIMULATION                                                                                                        7

Question a                                                                                                                                                                               8

Question b                                                                                                                                                                               9

Question c                                                                                                                                                                             10

Question d                                                                                                                                                                            11

Reference                                                                                                                                                                              13

Appendix                                                                                                                                                                               14

TASK 1 – SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Question 1

The  F activities  can be specified on the interior wall cladding for administration and sales office.Knowing how to accurately measure a four room help with work will administer if confirmed that the productivity could drop to 10 m2 per day,  and not more than 10 m2. The daily wage for the crew is $800 (regardless of the actual hours worked during the day). Depending on the reason that you are measuring the room, different measurements need to be taken. The four room is calculated on the walls on the classing room to find on the starting on the productivity activities cladding crew values which is 22 m2/day. The administration can conform on the product level on the crew value id could drop to 10 m2 per day and cannot be increased on the value on the productivity. If you have to putin flooring you need to know the area of the floor  before and after surrounding values of the project duration. If you are working, you need to know the height, width, weight on the area of walls and cladding floor and so on. We can assume on the values on the cladding floor to be each four rooms dimension value on length is 3.5, value on width is 2.5, and value on height is 3 to be calculated on the cladding floor on the total amount of four room wall class value is 10 m2 that means the value is 8.75 based on the actual hours working day.

Question 2

When it comes on the project to find on the maximum and minimum duration of the each stages on the F activities they can found on the Limit project durations to one finding the walls class on the crew cladding floor reporting cycle to trigger a troubled project alert warning.When in-progress tasks extend through two reporting period of the suitable project on the maximum and minimum value finding duration on the sensitivity risk analysis. The specialised cladding crew of the F activity on the total cost on the delay production duration is $29900. The finding on the maximum and minimum values of the guidelines on the productivity is not more than 10 m2 per day of the actual working hours is based on the calculation. |A project is no longer than 10 m2 per day of the most project productivity duration in trouble. Because the finding on the walls class on the crew cladding floors on the production on the project duration is very significant. Another guidelines on the project is to determine the delay project duration. The help on the guidelines to be finding on the value of the percentages is 1% to 12% on the delivery time in which provides the guides on maximum and minimum project duration. The start of  lower and upper project duration limits can be used for the 1% of the project duration which is denoted as the minimum of the project duration of the guidelines evolution. The ending on the project list 12% which is denoted as the maximum duration of the guide lines evaluation of the sensitivity risk analysis. Using the 1% to 12% rule, a special-purpose floor tiles could vary between 8 and 18 days. Day plan calculates the minimum duration of 1 days and the maximum period of 35 days. Exceptions to the 1% to 12% rule include project management or administrative tasks, project-level status or initiatives, and zero-time Wall cladding of four rooms of the risk of sensitivity analysis.  

Question 3

The project implementation on the C Activity is denoted as the specialised proposed on the showroom flooring activities. Records from the partner organization implements the Type project show that the delivery time for this type of special purpose turf varies between 8 and 18 days. Unable to get warranty delivery date from seller. The finding on the starting prices on the tools arrives which is specified on the daily rental cost of $ 300 which depends on the project implementation duration. Each activity of the start date 1 and ends on the 35th day duration. For example we can take the 12 days delivery time of the project duration activities to be specified on staring on the activity and  implement on 6th day and which denoted as the total number of the project duration is 35 days, The task to be delivery on the customer organization in three day process activities, and which specifies and finds the total tools of the rental cost which is $900 and project delay penalty on the duration cost is,$2000 , after that to  the total cost is calculated with extra costs incurred due to risk occurrence $2900. The overall of 18 days of the project duration calculates the extra costs incurred due to risk occurrence values which is $30000 in which based on the project delivery time and delay time on the project duration and implementation. The sensitivity on the risk occurrence on the project duration estimation is shown in below table values,

Delivery Time	Activity C Start Day	Project Duration	Additional days of tools rental	Project delay	Extra cost due to tools rental	Extra cost due to project delay	Total extra cost (tools + delay)
8 day	1	35	2	2	$600	$1500	$2100
9 day	2	35	3	3	$900	$2000	$2900
10 day	3	35	2	2	$600	$1500	$2100
10 day	4	35	2	2	$600	$1500	$2100
11 day	5	35	2	2	$600	$1500	$2100
12 day	6	35	3	3	$900	$2000	$2900
13 day	7	35	3	3	$900	$2000	$2900
14 day	8	35	3	3	$900	$2000	$2900
15 day	9	35	2	2	$600	$1500	$2100
16 day	10	35	2	2	$600	$1500	$2100
17 day	11	35	3	3	$900	$2000	$2900
18 day	12	35	3	3	$900	$2000	$2900
	$30000

Question 4

Sensitivity analysis on the F activities,

Action F requires specific cladding team. The team has an ordinary profitability pace of 22 m2 for every day (Toljaga-Nikolić, Todorović and Bjelica, 2018). There is a concern that the profitability level of the divider cladding group may not be as initially thought. Feedback from the work supervisor that the profitability could drop to 10 m2 for each day, yet not more. The day by day wage for the team is $800 (paying little mind to the genuine hours worked during the day. .A punishment is brought about if undertaking project in due date (as indicated by the agreement, the due date is 35 working days). The initial two days of postponement past the due date are punished $1,500 each. An expanded punishment of $2,000 every day is brought about from there on. The action of the F actitiivies can be determined on the inside divider cladding for organization and deals workplaces. Realizing how precisely four room help  work will control, affirmed that the efficiency could drop to 10 m2 for every day, not  in excess of 10 m2. The everyday wage for the group is $800 (paying little heed to the genuine hours worked during the day).

Productivity	Duration (before rounding) (days)	Duration (after rounding) (days)	Additional days of work in activity F	Project delay	Extra cost due to wages for activity F	Extra cost due to project delay	Total extra cost (wages + delay)
22 m2/day	13	12	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
21 m2/day	12	11	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
20 m2/day	11	10	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
19 m2/day	10	9	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
18 m2/day	9	8	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
17 m2/day	8	7	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
16 m2/day	7	6	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
15 m2/day	6	5	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
14 m2/day	5	4	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
13 m2/day	4	3	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
12 m2/day	3	2	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
11 m2/day	2	1	1	1	$800	$1500	$2300
10 m2/day	1	0	0	0	$0	$1500	$2300
						Risk occurrence	$29900

This section shows implementation on the plant industry on the innovative production technology on the finding of the risk analysis using manto Carlo simulation. The risk analysis can be implemented in three different types of cost group packages that include the, equipment purchasing, contraction and installation on the manto Carlo simulation risk analysis evaluation.

Cost group	Work package	Optimistic cost ($)	Most likely cost	Pessimistic cost	Probability
Equipment purchasing	Mechanical Electrical	1,800,000 750,000	2,150,000 850,000	3,200,000 1,250,000	22.33
	Instrumentation and control	350,000	380,000	440,000	8.5
Construction	Site works	50,000	60,000	75,000	3.17
and installation	Concrete works Steel works	550,000 420,000	650,000 470,000	880,000 580,000	60.83 6.17
	Brickworks	325,000	355,000	400,000	3.17
	Mechanical systems	950,000	1,150,000	1,400,000	11.17
	Electrical systems	1,000,000	1,200,000	1,750,000	12.5
	Piping and valves	1,250,000	1,500,000	2,200,000	15.67
	Coatings	95,000	120,000	175,000	16.67
	Control systems	700,000	810,000	1,085,000	8.17
	Internal finishing (for admin. rooms)	60,000	75,000	100,000	60.17

Question a

The manto Carlo simulation of the risk analysis  finds  the equipment purchasing  that are specify the work packages includeing the Mechanical, electrical, and instrument and control on the probability budget finding implementation. The analysis on the manto Carlo simulation on the normal distribution of the probability which is based on the budget $3.75 is the applicable on the manto Carlo simulation on the probability distribution is 4.0807 and the finding on the mean and standard deviation is 0.112 and 10.000 and analysing on the distribution it decreases but the finding on the confidence level is 90%. Therefore,based on the budget $3.75  to be supported of the normal distribution of the probability implementation. The Result of illusion they can show in below,

Question b

The manto Carlo recreation of the risk analyst investigation, can be found on the development and establishment that are determine the work bundles which incorporates the site works, solid work and steel work, Brickworks, Mechanical framework, Electrical framework, channelling and valves, covering, control framework, and inside completing on the likelihood spending discovering usage. The dissecting on the manto Carlo recreation on the typical dispersion of the likelihood depends on the spending limit. $6.70 million is relevant on the manto Carlo Simulation on the likelihood appropriation which is 4.0807 and the finding on the mean and standard deviation is 0.000 and 10.000. Examining on the dissemination declines however the finding on the certainty level is 90% so the dependent on the financial limit $6.70 million to be bolstered of the ordinary circulation of the likelihood execution. The execution of the result Is shown below illusion,

Question c

The manto Carlo simulation of the risk investigation can be found on the development and establishment that are determined by work bundles which incorporates the site works, solid work and steel work, Brickworks, Mechanical framework, Electrical framework, channelling and valves, covering, control framework, and inward completing on the likelihood spending discovering usage. Truly gauge of the subsequent cost gathering is the development and establishment, to ensure with 90 percent certainty (for example likelihood) that all development/establishment to be bolstered on the 90% certainty level on the manto Carlo usage.

Question d

The manto Carlo simulation of the risk analysis is investigates the finding on the development and establishment that are determines the work bundles which incorporates the site works, on the likelihood spending discovering usage (Kwak and Ingall, 2014). Likelihood that the temporary worker could lose cash on this task instead of picking up a benefit of the likelihood and finding on the mean and standard deviation is 0.000 and 10.000 and breaking down on the dissemination is decline yet the finding on the certainty level is 90% so the dependent on the spending limit $10.7 million to be supported of the ordinary conveyance of the likelihood execution. The manto Carlo simulation on the yield result that can appear in underneath,

Kwak, Y. and Ingall, L. (2014). Exploring monte carlo simulation applications for project management. IEEE Engineering Management Review, 37(2), pp.83-83.

Toljaga-Nikolić, D., Todorović, M. and Bjelica, D. (2018). Application of the Technique in a Project Risk Analysis. European Project Management Journal, 8(2), pp.36-42.