Marketing analysis help report on: Toyota Australia

 Marketing analysis help report on: Toyota Australia  

Executive Summary

Toyota Australia is an Australian car manufacturer that has been in operation since 1963. Its extensive sales and distribution network extends throughout the country and owns a market share of 18 per cent, generating total sales revenue of $7.079 billion (Key Facts 2012).

The domestic automotive industry of Australia accounts for 6 per cent of total manufacturing conducted in Australia and contributes to 1 per cent of GDP (Thornton 2008). The industry is currently in the declining stage of its lifecycle, and known as a ‘saturated’ market, with 90 per cent of Australian households owning a car.

With the continuing strength of the Australian dollar and increase in cheaper imports from Asian countries, local producers are facing huge threats to their profitability and market share. For the purpose of this report, we will be limiting our focus to the local producers in the automotive industry in Australia.

The automotive industry is exposed to many key influences and how Australian’s buy their cars is a result of its outcome. Locally produced cars becoming incompetent in the local car market has been strongly affected by cheaper imports, and high costs of local manufacturing. Coupled with this, demand for greener and cleaner and small fuel efficient vehicles has left local manufacturers behind innovate global counterparts.

The purpose of this report is to analyse the current situation of Toyota Australia and to predict several alternate scenarios that may occur over the next eight to ten years, and what impact they might have on the local automotive industry in Australia, and specifically Toyota and the type of vehicles they should produce.

Secondary data has been reviewed from industry reports, government documents and credible opinion leaders. By using this we have created four alternate scenarios using the deductive method. We conclude that the most likely of these scenarios is “The Green Future (45%)” as global warming emissions and pressure from the government will most likely continue to increase, so the car industry must react to this by developing fuel efficient vehicles to meet consumer demand. It is unlikely that the Australia automotive industry will remain the same as it is now.

This scenario depicts a future where Toyota Australia will be required to innovate, invest heavily in R&D for clean technology for long term strategy to meet market needs. The implications for Toyota Australia is limited growth in the local market by threat of cheaper, more fuel efficient and cleaner vehicles. They will have to re-evaluate their strategy in order to keep their local market share, and position themselves in the minds of Australians as a strong local and innovative Australian brand.

Nuguid (2012 Pp.11) forecasts that “Australia’s GDP should increase at an annualized rate of 2.4% over the next 10 years whereas, Automotive industry’s economy is estimated to decline at a rate of 1% for 2017-2018” which indicates that the Australian Automotive Industry is on the declining stage of its lifecycle. Australia’s market has saturated for automotive products over the past few years. It is estimated that 90% of Australian household own a car out of which 50% have more than 1 car. Continuous strengthening of Australian $ and huge imports of cheaper cars from Thailand, Japan and China are becoming major threats for the local Australian producers. The total production of Australian automotive industry has been on a downward trend whereas the region is witnessing a heavy demand for imported cars (Nuguid 2012, Pp.3). The total passenger car sales of Australia have decreased by 5.5% in 2011. Toyota, GM Holden and Ford are the 3 companies in Australia that manufacture cars domestically and the rest are imported. The total passenger car sales of Australia have decreased by 5.5% in 2011. However, SUV compact models and Small and Light passenger cars are the top selling products in the market (Australia Autos Report 2012, Pp. 30). In 2011, the sale of small cars grew by 2.1% compared to 2010 and SUV compact model sales increased by 5.8% to 121,387 total units sold (2011 New Vehicle Market 2012). Australia is also seeing a steady increase in sales of hybrid and other vehicles with alternative fuel technology. Since the beginning of 2012 till September 9,461 units of Hybrid cars have been sold compared to more than around 6,000 in 2011. As of May 2012, in terms of individual brand performance, Toyota has been the best-selling vehicle brand with a market share of 18% followed by GM Holden (12.5%) and Ford (9%) (2011 New Vehicle Market 2012).

2. Company Context

Toyota Australia has been in Australia since 1963 and today it is the leading car manufacturer in Australia. It has sales and distribution network throughout the country except Western Australia. The main brands manufactured by Toyota in Australia are Camry and Aurion, however more than half of it is exported in overseas market (History 2012). Toyota has a market share of 18% generating total sales revenue of $7.079 Billion. It sold a total of 181,624 units of Toyota domestically and 6,347 units of Lexus (Key facts 2012).

Focal Issue

The recent, decline in and potential future changes to take place in the Australian car market.

Framing Question

What changes should Toyota make to its best-selling car models in Small, Sedan and SUV segments in order to meet the Australian car market’s demand over the next 8 years (2020)?

Is it worthwhile to continue investing in developing alternative fuel based vehicles?

3. Trend Identification

Trend 1: Locally produced cars gradually becoming incompetent in the local car market.

Due to the unprecedented growth of the Australian car manufacturers since 1990’s when the new car sales fell down to as low as 513,000 compared to 1 million sales in 2007, resulted in manufacturers cutting cost by producing fewer models and focusing more on their existing competitive advantage in producing large, powerful and relatively fuel inefficient vehicles instead of developing new ones. Constantly increasing fuel prices and GFC has resulted in a shift in the Australian consumer behaviour (Roberts, M 2008). Consumers now demand for smaller fuel-efficient vehicle. On the other hand, continuous increased in AU$ over the past few years and now sitting just over $1.02 USD (Ricci, 2012) and tariffs on imports of cars lowering to as low as 5% (Australian Customs Notice 2009/49 2009) has resulted in stiff competition from other foreign manufacturers and Australian cars becoming less favourable in the domestic and global market. The total sales of Small and Light cars in 2010 was 377,107 units, imports accounted for100% of the total sales of these cars which shows that no small cars are manufactured in Australia and is considered to be one of the major drawbacks for the Australian Automotive Industry (Key Automotive Statistics 2011 2011, Pp. 22). A detailed description about the negative impacts of movements in AU$ and decreasing tariff rates on Australian Automotive production has been shown in Appendix 1 and Appendix 2. It is forecasted that the economic contribution of the Australian car industry will fall at an annualized rate of 1% until 2017-2018 (Nuguid 2012, Pp.11).

The total market share of locally produced passenger vehicles which includes large, medium and small segment cars has been constantly decreasing from 22.2% in 2008 to 20.8% in 2009 to 19.3% in 2010 and 20.5% in 2011 which can be seen in Figure 1. On the other hand, market share of imported cars for the same segments rose from 77.8% in 2008 to 79.2% in 2009 further up to 80.7% in 2010 and 79.5% in 2011(Key Automotive Statistics 2011 2011, Pp. 22). Australia exports 1/3^rd of its total produce in the global markets. The production value of locally made PMV’s from $7.49Bn in 2008 dropped down to $5.65Bn in 2009 went down till 5.32Bn in 2011(Key Automotive Statistics 2011 2011, Pp. 29).

Domestic manufacturers’ esp. Holden and Ford whose core product offerings include powerful cars with large tanks which have relatively inefficient fuel performance are facing stiff competition from cheap imported cars from China, Thailand and Japan. Mazda3 which is sourced from Japan is the highest selling car selling 41,429 units in 2011 leaving behind Holden Commodore which have been the highest selling cars in the Australian market since 1990’s who sold only 40,617 units (Australia Autos Market 2012, Pp.30). The price of steel and labour in Australia has been rapidly increasing since the last 5 years, which has therefore increased the cost of production. In mid-February 2011 the spot prices for a tonne of iron-ore was $185, which is considered to be the highest till date (ABARES 2011).

According to (Summary commentary Total number of vehicles on register 2012).16.7 million Vehicles registered from 14.7 million in 2007 in Australia. The continue increase in the number of motor vehicle are affecting the quality of environment as vehicle emission effects on climate change through greenhouse gas emission and by polluting air. In 2006 68.9 million tonnes of Australia’s net greenhouse gas emission was contributed by road transport form 14.5 million tonnes in 1990 (Hon 2008), in which passenger car vehicle is the highest contribution by 42.6 million tonnes in 2006. On the other hand the soaring of petrol price due to the increase in cost of extraction and increasing demand in Non-OECD countries mainly in India and China.

With the increasing number of cars and greenhouse gas emission, Australia has signed the agreement to UN in 2007(Monitoring of the Australian petroleum Industry 2010), where Australia has set its target to reduce 60 % of its greenhouse gas emission by 2050 in which the motor vehicle emission will be reduce by one third of current level. In September 2007 Innovation Australia was established, focusing on green car innovation fund which puts $500 million in Research and Development for alternative energy (Refer Figure 6). Over the next

10 years the focus will be on technological innovation which steer the industry into green future (Innovation Australia 2012).

The increasing global demand for fuel and it’s cost of extraction has steadily increased fuel price and the increasing greenhouse gas mission which ultimately effects on climate change has an greatest impact on the demand for the alternative energy which is shown in Figure 5 above.

Pre-Conditions

Increased in cost of extraction

High investment in R&D

Rising global demand

Increasing greenhouse gas emission

Post-Conditions

Continuing increase in cost of extraction

Positive adoption of alternative energy

Emission continues to increase

Trend 4: Green Movement in Australia

 Global warming and climate change are highly complex issues that are currently facing world leaders. With the insistent warnings from the scientific community about the continuing build-up of greenhouse gases, it is an issue that cannot be disregarded (Revkin 2012; About GCP 2012).

In 1997, Kyoto protocol was accepted by The United Nations which legally binds developed countries to reduce emissions by set targets (United Nations 2012) and on 11 March 2007 Australia was made an official part of the Kyoto Protocol.

In addition to the Kyoto Protocol, the Global Carbon Project was formed in 2001 to slow the greenhouse gases rates in the environment. What alarmed individuals and government was the announcement that emissions are continuing to rise – at 5.9 per cent in 2012 (Revkin, 2012), and the present concentration of atmospheric CO2 is the highest during the last two millions years (State of the Global Carbon Budget 2012). Figures such as these cannot be ignored, and in response the Australian Government has stepped in to help change the behaviour of individuals, companies and big polluters.

The behaviour shift from consumers has already become evident with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency Report (2012, p. 7-8) stating the 3.6 per cent decrease in petrol (including ethanol blended) consumption over the past five years. This decrease is attributed towards consumers adopting alternate fuel sources (such as diesel, gas) due to the rising cost of petrol. Additionally the growth in the segment for small and hybrid cars reflects the choice by consumers for more energy efficient vehicles – see graph below.

As   another   measure   to   help   combat   rising   emissions,   the   Australian Government on   1 July   2012, established a price on carbon used to be as an enticement for big polluters so that their way of doing business can be changed (Clean Energy Legislation: The way ahead2012). They have also committed to investing over $5 billion towards the development and commercialisation of clean energy technologies. Furthermore, the Australia Carbon Trust (developed by the government) has been established to assist businesses in paying for energy efficiencies (Reducing Australia’s emissions 2012) and with Clean Energy Future the Government has developed several measures that support competitiveness and jobs moving towards a clean future.

The government has also recognised that Australian households and individuals hold an important responsibility to reduce carbon emissions (Australian households equate for one fifth of carbon pollution of the nation). It was determined that through framework of Clean Energy Future (Everyday Living Prices 2012), ‘nine houses in ten will be offered a blend of tax cuts and payments in order to help with carbon price’s costs.

Consumer behaviour towards green products (choosing to purchase lower emission-intensive products over higher).

Government investment in Research and Development of clean technologies.

Government penalties for big polluters and high emission-intensive products.

The development and advancement of green technologies.

Post-Conditions:

Rising global warming and emissions.

Positive Consumer demand and behaviour towards green products.

Government investment into development and commercialisation of green technologies.

Government imposing heavy penalties for big polluters. Advancement of green/clean technologies.

4. Critical Uncertainties

 The post conditions for all the 4 trends are ranked on the basis of criteria and uncertainty in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Critical Uncertainties Table

at  least  for  the  next  few  years  (15  Emerging  trends  in  the

Australian petrol industry 2009).

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Based on the impact and uncertainty rankings listed in the above table, the uncertainties matrix (Figure 8) highlights the critical uncertainties among the 4 trends. They are;

Decreasing demand for large cars.

Continued or increasing consumer preference towards small cars Positive consumer adoption of alternate energy.

Increasing consumer demand towards green products.

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Figure 8: Impact Uncertainty Matrix

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5. Scenarios

The deductive method has been used to hypothesize several probable scenarios around two critical uncertainties (Refer Figure 9).

Figure 9: Scenario Analysis

Positive adoption for Alternate energy

GREEN

FUTURE (45%)

Consumer preference for small cars

HERE AND

NOW (15%)

Adoption towards Alternate energy not so positive

INNOVATE TO

SURVIVE (35%)

Consumer preference for big cars

HISTORY

REPEATS

ITSELF (5%)

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Scenario 1: The Green Future

Government, industry, consumers and various stakeholders invest in clean energy technology to reduce Australia’s carbon emissions and move towards a clean energy future. The scenario represents a high preference from consumers towards small, alternate energy vehicles.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (2012) stated that on average the new car sold in Australia is near about 15% more competent than it was twelve years ago, and the lowered CO2 car profile is attributed towards the preference from Australian car buyers. Additionally, according to National Average Carbon Emission, it was clear that motor vehicles sold in 2011 were down more than 2 % as compared to the previous year. The FCAI noticed the improvements in the form of arrangement of vehicle technologies’ improvement and changes in the preferences of consumers towards lesser emission from vehicles (FCAI, 2012).

IBISWorld reported the industry revenue of motor vehicle manufacturers contracting by a forecast of 9.4 per cent (annually) over the next five years (2012-2013) to reach $10.7 billion. This decline is attributed to consumers switching to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles as a result of increasing petrol prices and environmental concerns. The report highlights the need to produce cars that consumers want, in order to remain competitive and profitable in the market (IBISWorld, Industry performance pg.5). The report also forecasts car production to get better in 2012-2013, with domestic producers shifting their main concentration to smaller and more fuel-efficient motor vehicles or cars.

Although Australia is currently working towards a cleaner future, we are still behind the European Union, with our emissions from new passenger vehicles being 46 per cent higher than the union [see appendix: European measures that have reduced CO2 emissions from motor vehicles] (NTC, March 2012 pg. iv executive summary)

The Government of Australia has agreed to assist the automotive industry for over the subsequent five years in order to help make the industry greener. Green car manufacture’s development and the swing away from producing big cars would drive industry profitability over the next five years (IBIS, 2012 pg.10-12).

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Consequently, this scenario paints Australia as moving towards a greener future, with consumer preference driving the manufacturing of smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles. Furthermore, the greater movement from the European Union to lower carbon emissions will assist in driving Australia to become world leaders in clean energy technology.

Scenario 2: Innovate to Survive

True to Aussie tradition, large cars and SUVs have always dominated the market; however consumer behaviour shifted to small fuel-efficient due to rising petrol costs. The switch to smaller cars is not due to changing taste but to cost savings. This scenario represents a time where consumers still prefer their large cars but with fuel-efficient or alternate forms of energy.

According to IBISWorld Motor Vehicle Manufacturing in Australia (2012), the current demand for the large car dominates the market by 42.3 per cent. Demand for Ute and trucks used in the business sector are growing, and this segment is getting into more heaviness to manufacture more hybrid and fuel-efficient cars. Moreover, demand for buses is also rising as consumers have been adapting to using these services instead of their cars, to save on petrol costs.

As written in The Age (Valenzuela 2012), consumers are looking for value for money – price and fuel efficiency. Currently large Australian made cars are not competitive because they do not have this offering which is causing consumers to switch to smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. In order to develop comparative advantage, Australian automotive manufacturers must take this into account. By using Government protection to their advantage (see paragraph below), the potential to innovate and develop clean energy for large cars is highly possible. Due to improved economic situation there will be a high demand for addition features in the car for e.g. In-built GPS, Voice navigation and Assistance etc. Consumer’s car buying decisions will be based on luxury more than fuel efficiency.

The automotive industry, which according to the ABS (2005), is one of Australia’s key manufacturing sectors and therefore plays an important role in employment, research and development, and as such has received many Government benefits and policies to assist the industry to operate

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efficiently and competitively. The government of Australia on 10 July publicized that the founding of the more than $3billion Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), as portion of its package of Clean Energy Future (RET 2012) .Coupled with this, Australian car manufacturers can meet the objective to develop renewable energy’s competitiveness in the industry while augmenting renewable energy’s supply in the country Australia.

Scenario 3: Here and now

In this scenario small, sporty looking cars with petrol based fuel-efficient engines will be dominating the Australian Automotive Industry, due to the high cost and lack of infrastructure for alternative fuel. Consumer awareness for environment is assumed to remain the same without much of change. Government and energy companies will try to control the price of petrol by increasing the proportion of Ethanol in petrol to up to 85% (Reference) however, the petrol price is assumed to be relatively high. Due to the increasing population density, car-buying decisions of Australian consumers will be governed by fuel efficiency more than convenience (Monitoring of the Australian petroleum Industry 2010) due to high petrol prices. In this scenario Australia might also witness an increase in the demand for diesel based small vehicles in order to minimise their fuel costs.

Scenario 4: History repeats itself

In this scenario, Australia’s economic conditions are expected to improve as forecasted in Nuguid (2012, Pp.11) as well that “Australia’s GDP is expected to grow at a rate of 2.4% till 2017-2018” which results in higher disposable income for the household. This has a direct impact on the consumer behaviour where there is again a shift in Australian consumer demand for large sized cars. However, the demand for Sedans is expected to increase considerably but SUV’s remain the top seller. Although petrol continues to dominate the fuel industry and its rapidly increasing prices does put pressure on manufacturers for making the vehicles as fuel efficient as possible but the buying decisions are more inclined towards luxury. However, continuous efforts will be taken by the government to minimize the price of petrol by increasing proportion of ethanol is but there will also be a radical increase in the demand for diesel based SUV’s and Utes. This scenario will bring Ford and Holden back into the market due to their pre-existing competitive advantages in producing such vehicles.

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5. Probability

The ‘Green Future’ and ‘Innovate to Survive’ are considered to be the most likely scenarios based on the increasing government pressure on bringing alternate fuel in the Australian market. The Government has made significant investments to encourage energy and automotive companies as well as the consumers to develop and adopt alternate energy for example Automotive Transformation Scheme 2020 which aims at developing and adopting alternate energy in Australia by 2020 on a large scale. Although consumer adoption towards alternate energy might be uncertain but it is expected that due to well-developed infrastructure and attractive prices will have a positive impact on consumer behaviour regarding its adoption. Table 2 shows the rationale for probability assessment of each of the scenarios.

Table 2: Probability assessment table

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6. Consequences

Each scenario has different consequences on its stakeholders. Table 3 to Table 6 outline the major consequences to be considered.

Table 3: Consequences of Green Future (Toyota Motor Corporation, 2013)

Table 4: Consequences of Innovate to Survive (Toyota Motor Corporation, 2013).

Table 5: Consequences of Here and Now (Toyota Motor Corporation, 2010)

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7. Risks and Opportunities

7.1 The Green Future

Of all the scenarios, the most likely involves creating clean energy technology in order to meet local consumer demand and remain competitive in both the local and global market. Toyota Australia will need to focus on the research and development for alternate energy vehicles as the long term strategy, and as an opportunity to enter new global markets.

Risks:

Continue to lose local market share due to global competition with advancement of clean energy technology

Decline in profitability from high manufacturing costs alternate energy vehicles (low margins)

Increased reliance on government support and investment due to high local manufacturing costs

Decrease in revenue from local market

Opportunities:

Increased innovation in the development of clean energy technologies and alternate sources of energy for the small car segment Opportunity for Toyota to increase revenue by gaining larger market share

Create stronger brand awareness and keep an iconic Australian brand profitable

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7.2 Innovate to Survive

Similar to the previous scenario, this outcome will present Toyota with many challenges and risks – mainly involving cost and profitability. However, as a nation of large cars and SUVs, there is a potential opportunity for Toyota to enter global markets with a new type of SUV that is driven by clean energy.

Risks:

Failure to develop clean energy technology that is price competitive compared to imports.

Failure to enter international market for alternate and clean energy.

Continue to lose local market share due to global competition with advancement of clean energy technology.

Decline in profitability from high manufacturing costs alternate energy vehicles (low margins).

Opportunities:

Entry into global markets for clean energy technology in the small car.

Opportunity for Toyota Australia to develop partnerships with other automotive manufacturers (i.e. selling their engines to BMW). Opportunity for Toyota Australia to gain greater local market share as well as international market share for alternate energy vehicles.

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8. Conclusion

Toyota Australia is faced with considerable challenges that will potentially directly affect their manufacturing processes, profitability and strategy.

The four key trends impact Toyota Australia include:

Locally produced cars gradually becoming incompetent in the local car market.

Increasing demand for Small cars

The Increasing need for alternative energy

Green Movement in Australia

The post conditions that were discovered then gave us the critical uncertainties of positive adoption of alternate energy and consumer preference for small to large sized cars.

The four possible scenarios were developed:

Green Future

Innovate to Survive

Here and Now

History Repeats itself

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The  two  most  likely  scenarios  involve  Government,  industry,  consumers  and  various  stakeholders  invest  in  clean  energy  technology  to  reduce

Australia’s carbon emissions and move towards a clean energy future. Theses scenario represents a high preference from consumers towards both small and large alternate energy vehicles.

The opportunities for Toyota Australia include increased market share in the global market as new entry competitors (for clean energy), creating stronger brand awareness and keeping an iconic Australia brand competitive and increasing their revenue in the alternate energy vehicle market.

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