Aims:
This assignment aims to give you an opportunity to:
 Research and consider an issue of reasonable complexity using the concepts of systems and system dynamics;
 Use brainstorming techniques and collaborate in groups;
 Apply system dynamics methodology, tools and techniques considered in the subject to show your ideas on the topic researched.

Topics:
The topics of this assignment should be chosen from technical areas introduced by the 2017 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC2017) that will be held in Canada (http://www.smc2017.org/). SMC2017 is the flagship conference of the IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society, and provides an international forum for researchers and practitioners to report their innovations and development and to exchange ideas and advances in all aspects of systems science and engineering, human machine systems, and cybernetics. The conference call for paper can be accessed here: http://www.smc2017.org/SMC2017.pdf

Requirements:
Look at the introduced topic areas, do some preliminary literature search and define an interesting research question in your group. Do a more detailed literature review focused on your research question to identify elements that are contributing to the problem raised by your question. Create a detailed causal loop diagram (CLD) to show your findings including relationships, their polarities, and feedback loops. Remember to look at the systemic interrelationships involved in the scenario, and to capture these through your CLD. There is no “right” or “wrong” answer here. Your response will be judged by your understanding of the systemic nature of the situation, and your ability to capture it in a CLD drawn correctly. Ensure that your response does not merely summarize the literature, such a response will not attract many marks. Covert your CLD into a stock-flow diagram (SFD), determine relevant equations and initial values. If finding real data is not possible, the use of estimated values is acceptable.

You need to write a six-page paper in the IEEE format which is in use by SMC2017. The template can be found here: https://www.ieee.org/conferences_events/conferences/publishing/templates.html

Notes:
 Considering IEEE format, your paper needs to be between 6 to 10 pages including figures, tables, and references.
49004 Systems Engineering for Managers Group Assignment
P a g e | 2
 You are expected to submit a soft copy of your assignment to the subject’s Turnitin Assignments submission folder in UTSOnline by 11.59pm of the due date (please see the class timetable in UTSOnline). Refer to the Subject Outline for file naming requirements.
 What we will be looking for in your responses is the application of system dynamics, and the use of Vensim. You need to draw the CLDs and SFDs using Vensim.
 Ensure all your references are properly acknowledged via in-text referencing and through a reference list at the end of your paper. Your references should belong to scholarly literature. See the subject outline for more information on referencing.
 You are reminded of the UTS policy on plagiarism.

Author-1 Details

1.      Introduction

Different transport services in Asian countries will be investigated. The mode of transport will be studied. Vehicles will be classified into various classes. The traffic controlling parameters will be assigned with the suitable alpha numeric variables. The socio economic, demographic data will be collected and suitable parameters will be extracted for investigation. Modelling switches and setup parameters will be extracted that can be useful for investigating C02 emission effects in various transportation systems in Asia. Various user inputs from the users, using various transport systems will be collected and will be investigated. The Vensim software and the modelling using this software will be studied. The Future Inland Transport Systems (FITS) Vensim model will be studied. The collected parameters will be investigated using the ForFITS model. The necessary CLD and SFD diagrams will be drawn using the Vensim mo

Then, fill the below details. After that, the download link will be sent to the given mail. Next, click on that link and download the software.

After downloading the software, double click on the exe file to install the software. The below page will open first. Then, click on the ‘I accept the agreement’ option and then click on Next button.

Click on the below selected options and click on the Next button to install the software.

After selecting the comment tool, provide the topic of the diagram. It is now possible to change the font size, style and color as required by the user.

The below window shows the title of the model.

The stock and flow diagram [7][11] presents the valid relationship between the parameters, flows and stocks. It is required to create the ghost of stocks, converters and flows. The stock and flow diagram is used to create the system dynamic models in Anylogic. The Anylogic uses the system dynamic tools. Draw the stock and flow diagram by using the notation. In graphical editor draws the stock and flow diagram by using the system dynamic palette, which includes inflow and outflow.

1.      Vensim Software Simulation Process

Vensim software is used for simulation process. It is developed by the Ventana system. Its support continues the simulation process with the agent based and discrete modelling capabilities. It is used to improve the performance of the systems. It is also used for analyzing, packaging and developing the dynamic models.

Open the Model

Click File, then Open and open the Vensim model file from the directory.

Structure Examination of the Model

Click the Analysis tool from the top of the window. It will show the ouput . The cause tree diagram of the model is shown in the below screenshot.

Examining the Behavior of the Model

Place the mouse in the workforce. It will show the graph in the popup window.

Click the Graph analysis tool from the tool bar. It will show the workforce output graph.

projection between the scenarios and baseline scenarios. In future, the proposed transport policies are estimated and it implements the amount of CO2 emissions. The Implemented transport policies are used for reducing the CO2 emissions. The FITS model mainly focuses on the CO2 emission from the inland transport and it contains the inland waterways, road, rail, and predicts the future emissions and road based on the possible patterns. This model is basically useful for the analysis of the transport systems and it has the local, national and regional dimension.

8.      Using ForFITS Model

Using ForFITS mainly focuses on the model and it evaluates, how to run it, how to compare the various model runs and how to visualize the results for the analytical purposes.

9.      Running the ForFITS Model

1. Download the student version of XLS files and ForFITS VPM files.
2. Check that both the files are present in the same folder.
3. Download the Vensim Model Reader.
4. Then, open the ForFITS VPM file.
5. Check that the inputs are correctly entered in the ForFITS excel file.
6. Close all the Microsoft office files.
7. In the VMR window, click on the simulate button.

8. The VMR first displays the work in progress message by communicating with the ForFITS excel file. Then, it opens the ForFITS excel file. So, here it transfers the inputs form the excel file to VMR.

9. If the VPM file is not present in the same folder of the ForFITS Inputs.xls and if the results of model to the user are made to run, then it indicates the input files to be considered.

10. Then, VMR shows the second message which informs the users about the calculation time.

11. Once the calculation is finished, the VMR saves the results in a VDF (Vensim Data File).

10.      Output Visualization

Model results are visualized in graphs or tables. The results can be saved and printed as individual files. The tables are stored as text file and the graphs are stored as images.

The subscripts are managed by using the Vensim’s Subscript control. To activate the control, click on the Subscript button.

Two Scenarios Comparison

To analyze the different scenarios, the VMR uses different inputs. Manage the model simulations, by clicking on the control panel button in the VMR tool bar.

Finally, the results will be displayed in the graphs or tables for each variable or simulation with different color codes.

11.      Data Sets Used

Obtained the datasets from The United Nations Economic Commission website [12]. Got a Vensim packaged model (128 MB) and an excel file (6 MB File).

The file is attached below. The file can be opened using MS EXCEL 2003 without any problems. XLSX extensions are used for MS EXCEL 2007 and higher versions. So, the higher versions will face few problems in opening the excel file.

del. The expected outcome, the key indicators and the achievements will be studied. Suitable conclusions and recommendations will be made based on the study followed by the investigation.

The above excel sheet and the controlling parameters are studied fully.

12.      Development of the ForFITS Model

The data, reviews, suggestions and comments received from the stakeholders and internal research from the internet are reviewed and the very next initiative is to develop the analytical or empirical model for to calculating the amount of CO₂ emission from the transport vehicles that are used on the in places like Asian counties. There are a number of functionalities to be considered such as different policy related variables, in order to impact on the emission of CO₂ [6].

The results from internet show that, the model’s development was decided to carry on depending on the expert’s reviews. According to this, the conclusion was to add the following in the model like, the maritime, aviation and pipeline modes.  This step is an effective step, which can meet the challenges in the transport system in the Asian countries.

In the development of the model, its structure is necessary in the vehicles. The structure of the ForFITS model is designed based on the fundamental parameters related to the emission of CO2. The fundamentals relate to the use of the vehicle and the powertrain technology implemented in the vehicle. On the other hand, the other parameters include for both the private and public use relate to ton-kilometers (tkm), passenger-kilometers (pkm) and type of the vehicle. The model was validated depending on the comments and research based on the Asian countries, where the pilot applications have shown effective practical use in the ForFITS model.

13.      Findings

The findings of the research shows the following results:

• The implantation of pilot applications in the ForFITS model has resulted in providing efficiency.
• The model of ForFITS suits well in the analysis of the transport systems. Because it matches all the dimension of local, regional and national dimension. The main focus is on the national dimensions.
• The pilot application’s implementation also shows that there are possibilities for adding more features and improving the model.
• The impacts of the model’s technology can be guaranteed from the evaluation.
• The developed model of ForFITS will not show any kind of negative impact on the speed of the vehicle in the transport system when any change is initiated, as there are prominent effects on the CO₂
• The further improvement can be done in the next version of the ForFITS model, which will add huge value, will be very expensive to improvise the infrastructure of the rail and transport system.
• The results show that the effective information is retrieved from the research.
• The results also show that the total aggregate amount of CO₂ emission can be easily determined with the help of the analytical models.
• The results determine that the parameters present in the statistical sources which are untiled for calibration are transport activities and use of energy.

14.      Training and Capacity Building

The training and capacity building is referred as the final phase of the project. The research represents that more time was taken by the other two phases of this project, which actually increased the anticipation of the project. This last phase was carried our concurrently with the implementation of the pilot program. The implementation of pilot application program benefited the workshops of capacity building. Huge number of people participated in the workshop, where most of the participants were experts in policy making and other knowledgeable people. The feedback of the workshop gave satisfactory results, which indicated satisfactory comments from the viewers and participant in using the ForFITS model for future use in order to bring in the strategy which promotes sustainable transport. The results are referred form the content available in the internet. A large number of organizations from the Asian countries participated in the workshop. Similar workshops were conducted at least six times during 2013 in different regions.

The workshop mainly addressed the experts, to help them gain knowledge about the ForFITS model related technical ideas to be implemented in their future.

15.      Expected Outcomes

The expected results from the research on the development of the ForFITS model are as follows:

• The amount of knowledge of the model was provided to the workshop participants.
• The knowledge projected the benefits and impacts of the energy and CO2 emissions in various modes of transportation system.
• It initiated in focusing on the importance of the reduction in CO2 emission in the inland transport.
• It also showed the dedication of maximize the actions on assessing and monitoring to decline the emission of CO2.
• The expectation of evolving the parameters of macroeconomic was more. But, the policy intervention was absent.

16.      Key Indicators

Key indicators include the following:

• The International and government organizations consulted the previous methodologies and models.
• ForFITS has the number of pilots.
• The project report is publishing the common techniques to sampling of the CO2 emissions and data collection.
• Many countries are publishing the statistics of the inland transport CO2 emissions.
• Many countries are establishing the targets and it is used to reduce the transport CO2 emissions.
• The regions are able to monitor and assess the transport CO2 emission.
• Key indicators display the web hits.
• Many countries express the intentions.
• To design the most effective indentations.
• It reduces the transport CO2 emissions.

17.      Achievements

The achievements are as follows:

1. In this process, almost 60 countries were consulted and 17 models were responded. It is added in the Global status report.
2. The internet contains the FITS model and the other relevant model documentation.
3. FITS is piloted in all the UN countries and in two Europe countries.
4. Global status report has the list of requisite information with 100 sources. The requisite information is provided by various organizations and 60 countries.
5. The Evolution of FITS indicator is postponed due to insufficient time and delay.
6. The workshop about capacity building is attended by 254 members. In that, 140 members are capable to use FITS.
7. The participants from 7 countries (254 members) are trained. From that, 170 members responded the questionnaires. 92% have the intention to use FITS.
8. From March 2011 to December 2013, the count of registered web hit is 7600.

18.      Conclusion

The research concludes that the efforts taken were implemented successfully as per the expected results for the development of the ForFITS model. The main focus of this research was on reducing the CO₂ emission from the atmosphere which is caused from the inland transport. To ensure safety measures the ForFITS model considered effective parameters and is guaranteed to provide a flagship contribution. However, there are certain holes identified in the model, but still the defects can be improvised with a large amount of investment on refinement of the model, which will make it a robust and versatile model. On the other hand, the model is also denoted to be complicated and suggests to gain help and guidance from the UNECE for a specified duration prior to its implementation in the Asian countries with respect to having knowledge of the monitoring the settings of the ForFITS model to evaluate the CO₂ emission and reducing its negative impact of the climatic changes.

19.      Recommendations

The general recommendations suggested depending on the analysis and research are as follows:

• The technical unit present in the UNECE must be improvised to a greater extent.
• The major and effective suggestion is to invest more for improvising the model.
• The long-term based use of the ForFITS model is suggested to privatize.

20.      References

[1]”Vensim”, Vensim.com, 2017. [Online]. Available: http://vensim.com. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[2]”Causal Loop Diagrams: Little Known Analytical Tool”, Isixsigma.com, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.isixsigma.com/tools-templates/cause-effect/causal-loop-diagrams-little-known-analytical-tool/. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[3]”Fine-Tuning Your Causal Loop Diagrams—Part I – The Systems Thinker”, The Systems Thinker, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://thesystemsthinker.com/fine-tuning-your-causal-loop-diagrams-part-i/. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[4]”Diagram CLD”, Kumu, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://kumu.io/stw/diagram-cld. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[5]”Step-By-Step Stocks and Flows: Converting From Causal Loop Diagrams – The Systems Thinker”, The Systems Thinker, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://thesystemsthinker.com/step-by-step-stocks-and-flows-converting-from-causal-loop-diagrams/. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[6]Systemdynamics.org, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.systemdynamics.org/DL-IntroSysDyn/stock.htm. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[7]B. Manifesto, b. Why change is inevitable, H. transformation, T. prototyping, H. prototyping, S. Tutorials, I. Dynamics, C. Diagrams, S. Diagrams, S. Simulation, I. Simulation, V. diagram, V. model, V. Model, S. Metamodel, S. Method, P. Enterprise, B. Prototyping, T. Metamodel, M. Techniques, M. Metamodels, A. Site, A. Prototyping, A. transentis, L. Information, S. Tutorials and I. Dynamics, “Stock and Flow Diagrams – Business Prototyping Blog -“, Business Prototyping Blog, 2017. [Online]. Available: http://www.business-prototyping.com/step-by-step-tutorials/introduction-to-system-dynamics/stock-and-flow-diagrams/. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[8]”Stock and flow diagram – Simulace.info”, Simulace.info, 2017. [Online]. Available: http://www.simulace.info/index.php/Stock_and_flow_diagram. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[9]”Translating Systems Thinking Diagrams (STD/CLD) to Stock & Flow Diagrams”, Systems-thinking.org, 2017. [Online]. Available: http://www.systems-thinking.org/stsf/stsf.htm. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[10]”ForFITS Model – Assessing Future CO2 Emissions – Transport – UNECE”, Unece.org, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.unece.org/trans/theme_forfits.html. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

[11]H. Rahmandad, R. Oliva and N. Osgood, Analytical methods for dynamic modelers, 1st ed. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2015.

[12]”UNECE Homepage”, Unece.org, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.unece.org/info/ece-homepage.html. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

Author-2 Details

2.      Installation of Vensim Software

Go to the website called as vensim.com [1]. Then, click on download option on the web page.

The below page will open. Then, click on the Free Downloads button.

The below option is clicked and then, click on the Next button.

Provide the name as provided in the below window and click on the Next button.

Select the location to install the software and then click on the Next button.

3.      CLD Diagram

Lot of references are studied to get the knowledge about CLD diagrams [2][3][4]. After completing the installation, the below window of the software is opened. It is now possible to create the model in that software. Go to the file menu and click on the new model.

Select the options as we want to create the model and then select on Ok option to create a new model.

To draw the casual loop diagram, first select the variable tool to provide the name of the variable. All the variables are named by using the variable tool.

Select the arrow symbol to draw the link between all the variables. The below image shows the link between the variables.

Finally, the below CLD diagram is obtained by using the Vensim software [5][9]

5.      Vensim Software Simulation Process

Vensim software is used for simulation process. It is developed by the Ventana system. Its support continues the simulation process with the agent based and discrete modelling capabilities. It is used to improve the performance of the systems. It is also used for analyzing, packaging and developing the dynamic models.

show the variables with feedback loops which are being passed in the workbench.

6.      Model Simulation using VENSIM

To simulate the model, double click on the simulation run name in the current toolbar. Then, enter the name as Baserun. Baserun is the name of the dataset. It contains the values of the variables. Click on the SyntheSim button in the toolbar. It will change the mode of the SyntheSim model.

Click on the inventory variable from the sketch and click on the graph tool. It will show the output graph of the inventory.

Click the Table tool from the tool bar. It will show the following output window.

7.      Vensim Packaged Model

The Vensim uses the FITS model [10]. The FITS model stands for Future Inland Transport Systems. FITS model is used to make the informed decisions about the CO2 emission reduction in the transport sector. FITS model users uses the tools and the tools compare the 9. If the VPM file is not present in the same folder of the ForFITS Inputs.xls and if the results of model to the user are made to run, then it indicates the input files to be considered.

10. Then, VMR shows the second message which informs the users about the calculation time.

Here, the VMR control panel contains the two simulations such as ForFITS simulation 1 and ForFITS simulation 0. Once the user clicks on the ForFITS simulation 0 button and at the same time click on the >> button. Then, the ForFITS simulation 0 has been activated.

Next, click on the ForFITS simulation 1 button and at the same time click on the >> button. Then, the ForFITS simulation 1 has been activated. Here, all the runs are activated.

to be considered such as different policy related variables, in order to impact on the emission of CO₂ [6].

The results from internet show that, the model’s development was decided to carry on depending on the expert’s reviews. According to this, the conclusion was to add the following in the model like, the maritime, aviation and pipeline modes.  This step is an effective step, which can meet the challenges in the transport system in the Asian countries.

In the development of the model, its structure is necessary in the vehicles. The structure of the ForFITS model is designed based on the fundamental parameters related to the emission of CO2. The fundamentals relate to the use of the vehicle and the powertrain technology implemented in the vehicle. On the other hand, the other parameters include for both the private and public use relate to ton-kilometers (tkm), passenger-kilometers (pkm) and type of the vehicle. The model was validated depending on the comments and research based on the Asian countries, where the pilot applications have shown effective practical use in the ForFITS model.

13.      Findings

The findings of the research shows the following results:

• The implantation of pilot applications in the ForFITS model has resulted in providing efficiency.
• The model of ForFITS suits well in the analysis of the transport systems. Because it matches all the dimension of local, regional and national dimension. The main focus is on the national dimensions.
• The pilot application’s implementation also shows that there are possibilities for adding more features and improving the model.
• The impacts of the model’s technology can be guaranteed from the evaluation.
• The developed model of ForFITS will not show any kind of negative impact on the speed of the vehicle in the transport system when any change is initiated, as there are prominent effects on the CO_{2 emission.}
  

  15.      Expected Outcomes

  The expected results from the research on the development of the ForFITS model are as follows:

  • The amount of knowledge of the model was provided to the workshop participants.
  • The knowledge projected the benefits and impacts of the energy and CO2 emissions in various modes of transportation system.
  • It initiated in focusing on the importance of the reduction in CO2 emission in the inland transport.
  • It also showed the dedication of maximize the actions on assessing and monitoring to decline the emission of CO2.
  • The expectation of evolving the parameters of macroeconomic was more. But, the policy intervention was absent.

  16.      Key Indicators

  Key indicators include the following:

  • The International and government organizations consulted the previous methodologies and models.
  • ForFITS has the number of pilots.
  • The project report is publishing the common techniques to sampling of the CO2 emissions and data collection.
  • Many countries are publishing the statistics of the inland transport CO2 emissions.
  • Many countries are establishing the targets and it is used to reduce the transport CO2 emissions.
  • The regions are able to monitor and assess the transport CO2 emission.
  • Key indicators display the web hits.
  • Many countries express the intentions.
  • To design the most effective indentations.
  • It reduces the transport CO2 emissions.

  17.      Achievements

  The achievements are as follows:

  19.      Recommendations

  The general recommendations suggested depending on the analysis and research are as follows:

  • The technical unit present in the UNECE must be improvised to a greater extent.
  • The major and effective suggestion is to invest more for improvising the model.
  • The long-term based use of the ForFITS model is suggested to privatize.

  20.      References

  [1]”Vensim”, Vensim.com, 2017. [Online]. Available: http://vensim.com. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

  [2]”Causal Loop Diagrams: Little Known Analytical Tool”, Isixsigma.com, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.isixsigma.com/tools-templates/cause-effect/causal-loop-diagrams-little-known-analytical-tool/. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

  [3]”Fine-Tuning Your Causal Loop Diagrams—Part I – The Systems Thinker”, The Systems Thinker, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://thesystemsthinker.com/fine-tuning-your-causal-loop-diagrams-part-i/. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

  [4]”Diagram CLD”, Kumu, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://kumu.io/stw/diagram-cld. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

  [5]”Step-By-Step Stocks and Flows: Converting From Causal Loop Diagrams – The Systems Thinker”, The Systems Thinker, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://thesystemsthinker.com/step-by-step-stocks-and-flows-converting-from-causal-loop-diagrams/. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].

  [6]Systemdynamics.org, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.systemdynamics.org/DL-IntroSysDyn/stock.htm. [Accessed: 10- Feb- 2017].