Assignment overview on: Project management in Mint cake

Abstract

The study is a project implementation based on the probability of the risks, which may happen during or before the implementation and impact of the risks on the project. The probability gives a measure of surety, as a fraction, of the chances of the occurrence of the event. With the occurrence of the various categorized risks, there is level of impact, again a fraction similar to the probability, but it gives the amount of expected impact on the budget and the time of the project. Then, we analyze the level of the risks in a Probability-Impact chart, which is actually a 9-grid matrix (ormatrix) which puts the different risks in the rows and columns corresponding to their probabilities and the impact. As we would go through the matrix from the left-side bottom edge towards the top, the probability of the risks increase and towards the right the impact of the risks would increase. Thus, the matrix would let us know, how grave are the risks.

Introduction

The project is about the launch of a new product called Mint cake at Bakes Confectionaries. We are going to plot the seven important risks associated with the launch of the product, in the PI matrix, to analyze the severity of the risks from low to medium and high. This way we are going to prioritize the risk. We would calculate the cost of the risks on the budget. The amount of budget would need to be increased if the impact of the medium and the high risks are to be reduced on the project. Let us now go through the different tasks assigned in the project.( Project Management Institute ,2008)

Tasks

Let us first go through the various risks in the project and then we would plot them according to their probability of their occurrence and the impact they may cause on the project as a PI matrix.(Sanghera,2010)

The new name of the product “Mint Cake” is the first risk, as the legal permission for the name has not been taken. There are 40% chances of the occurrence of the risk, so it can be considered as a medium level of risk. The next risk R2, is associated with the availability of the pastry cook, if he is not available then a new cook would have to be hired. There are almost 50% chances that the present pastry cook is not available. Though the risk is high, it just on the edge of being labeled as a high risk, hence it comes under the medium risks. The government regulations on the production of the confectionary foods may get changed, so there lays a low level risk of around 20% if the regulations are changed. The raw materials for the production of mint cake may not be available at the time of manufacture. This may cause a breach in the demand and the supply of the product. Thus, even though the probability of the occurrence is low as 30%, the impact on the business would be as high as 70%.This named as risk R4. There is also risk associated with the delay in the market research. The time taken to reach the prospects and getting them interviewed may take longer than expected. There is a high probability 80% of the risk to happen, hence this posses a critical impact 90% on the launch of the product and can cause a loss of business. There are high chances (70%) of the project manager of the mint cake to be transferred to another project, so the risk R6 would pose a high impact of 80% on the business. Bake confectionaries has in-house experts for tasting but there are chances (20%) of him being unavailable on time. Even the probability of risk R7 is low the associated impact on the business would be as high as 70%, thus a major loss to the business if the tasting expert is not available on time. In order to avoid the risk R7, we would need the external tasting expert but the chances of him being not available are 50% and hence may cause a delay in the launch schedule of the mint cake.

Task 1 and 2

We have plotted the seven risks associated with the launch of mint cake s the low to high risks in the PI matrix as shown below. It can be clearly noted that the risks R5 and R6 pose high risks as their probability of occurrence and their impact is quite high. Then there are risks R2 and R8 which are of medium probability but their impact would be high. The risks R4 and R7 are of low probability but their associated business impact is high. The risk R1 is of medium probability and medium impact. The risk R3 has the low probability and medium impact.

Figure 1: The PI matrix of the risks associated with the launch of “Mint Cake”.

Task 3

In this task we calculate the additional cost that should be budgeted, if we want to address the high risks and the medium risks both. We have give the additional costs to be budgeted in the following table.

Thus, a total additional budget of 13030 pounds is required to avoid the delay in the launch of the product mint cake.

Task 4

There would be changes in the PI matrix, as shown below as a result of the changes in the probabilities of the risks R6 and R7.

References

1. Project Management Institute (2008),A guide to the management body of Knowledge,

2. Sanghera, P. (2010). Project Management professional Guide for PMP Exam. 2^nd Ed. Boston: Course Technology

3. Risk Assessment And Impact Analysis from http://openlearn.open.ac.uk/mod/oucontent/view.php?id=397425

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